Managed Futures & Trend Following 2017 Strategy

MANAGED FUTURES and TREND FOLLOWING IN 2017
estimated read time: 1min 50 seconds

I know what you are thinking…

What does Jasmine from Aladdin have to do with trading? We’ll get to that in a bit. But first let’s consider the name “Managed Futures.”

Managed Futures. What a shite name.

Before knowing a ton about it, the term probably makes you think

So are we “managing the future?”
How exactly do we do that?
Are we predicting the future?
Does this require genie lamps?
Will Aladdin make an appearance?
I kind of like Jasmine, she’s hot. “Wait, let me change clothes if Jasmine is coming!”

I kind of like Jasmine, she’s hot. “Wait, let me change clothes if Jasmine is coming!”

Aladdin Jasmine is hot
Managed Futures are “A Whole New World”

Trend Following. A slightly better name.

Ok we follow “the trend” with actionable trade signals based on a mathematical/programmatic system that helps us describe if a stock/future or trading instrument is currently experiencing trend like behavior.

BUT….

What stocks/futures/instruments do we “follow?”
How do we manage a portfolio of risk and allocate the risk throughout?
I can tell if we should be long or short SPX index… but what about cattle and lumber futures?
What if I want to apply trend following strategies to only US equities?

This presentation was given to me recently and I thought it would be good for retail investors to take a look at how professional investors (charge a management fee), specifically trend followers, describe their strategy and trading.

Aspen Portfolio Strategy from Aspen Partners on Vimeo.

There is a big difference between retail traders and professional traders. Nowadays, the gap SHOULD close, given all the access to information on the internet.

Trend Following managers existed but there wasn’t Michael Covel’s book. I’m sure some investors or money managers that allocated to them early on didn’t quite know the intricacies of the strategy as what’s available now.

Check out the presentation and let me know what you think.

This is the first article in a series on TREND FOLLOWING AND MANAGED FUTURES. IF you want updates when the new articles come out, please subscribe by kindly offering your best email.

*This is not advice, recommendation or anything to do with advice. Managed futures, trading and speculation carry a lot of risks.
You can lose everything.
You can be living in a van down by the river.
Please don’t live in a van down by the river.
Unless you want to.
Hey, I hear houses and condos are overrated anyways.
I am all about minimalist lifestyle too.
OK, if you do live in a van down by the river, please let me stay with you one night.
We can talk about managed futures, trading and trend following. ;]

Make Chipotle Great Again | CMG Earnings Trade for 2/2/2017

Chipotle reports earnings after the close, 2/2 2017

I’ve been a Chipotle bull calling for a comeback for quite some time now.

See my original video on CMG talking about buying it around $400

chipotle stock CMG chart 2017
2017 chipotle stock pre earnings

I talk about the pattern and the possibility of the counter trend rally occurring in depth.

The stock has run up slightly into earnings from $353 on the lows to $425 currently

The stock is pricing in around $20 move in the options market post earnings.

Short interest is high around 20%

Analysts at Maxim downgraded the stock citing “avocado problems”

If you having avocado problems I feel bad for you son’

CMG daily has breached the all important 200 period Simple Moving Average and is holding the 10 EMA heading into earnings

cmg chart 2017
CMG Daily

I feel the downside is too much, it was oversold and I’m looking for a “squeeze em’ Sally Rally”

*Disclosure: I Own calls and Common stock in CMG

Wish me Luck 😀

Chipotle Bulls Waiting for Turn
Will I die before Chipotle snaps back?

Trump bans immigrants for 90 days from 7 countries | Left Implodes in Moral Outrage

Trump follows through with his campaign promises, initiates a 90 day ban on Immigrants from 6 countries and left implodes.

The following countries are effected by the ban:
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Yemen

trump immigration plan
Trumps Plan Laid out for over 1 year of campaigning

The countdown to radical Leftist terrorism has started. Both the Left and Radical Islamic terrorists want to take down the west. Unfortunately, I think it is a matter of time before we see more terrorism and murder in the name of Black Lives Matter and other leftist groups.

All the while, being encouraged from mainstream media outlets like CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC etc…

The continue to try to de-legitimize Trump and to call him a Nazi. The legacy media continues to call Trump supporters racists, bigots and to make ridiculous comparisons to silence Trump supporters.

A Conversation with A Clinton Supporter

Me: Who do you like in US election?
Person: Clinton
Me: Why?
Person: Because Trump is racist, misogynistic, and xenophobic
Me: Why?
Person: Because MSNBC/CNN/ABC told me so.
Me: If I showed you clear conflict of interest from these “news sources,” would you consider that they may be misleading you
(anchors at those channels were biased; gave significantly more money to and communicated with Clinton in emails for years)?
Person: No.
Lesson: Some people cant handle the truth.
Step outside Comedy Central, Bill Maher, Rachel Maddow etc…These people do not have YOUR best interests in mind. They are the Ministry of Truth in Orwell’s dystopic, yet stunningly real Nineteen Eighty Four.

“Until they became conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious.”- Orwell

Welcome To America. Election Twenty F*cking Sixteen

Welcome to America.
It’s gotten to the point where, if MSNBC said the sky was Brown, I would be arguing with leftists all day that the sky was indeed still blue.
The WikiLeaks have completely exposed the DNC, Clinton Campaign and the Clintons (as if the past 30 years of corruption, sexual assault/rape, pandering and general lack of good outcomes hasn’t already). This clear evidence has exposed that some walk among us, that are already living in The Matrix and that the year is 1984.
Yet all we hear is how bad Trump is and how Hillary is just crushing him. Ellen Degeneres, Michelle Obama, Trump phony rape victim, Barrack Obama, well groomed CNN anchors arguing with truth tellers, rinse, repeat. I’m waiting until they start rounding up political prisoners for this to complete. Let’s see if Police and Military will comply with the treasonous leeches at the top, suckling off the masses of sheep, trekking to slaughter. Obama Guides Supporters

So you hate Trump…Obama Who?

==Obama Who?==
If you are outraged at Trump but you didnt mind when Obama:
-Campaigned on getting out of the wars but when elected, expanded the wars
-Said Obamacare would be saving families $2500 but actually increased the costs.
-Used every excuse to attack the 2nd amendment ( Clinton will be worse)
-Gave billions on pallets to Iran, an enemy that funds terrorism.
-Gave away the Internet domain naming system to international organization (Icann)
-Took 93% of the Black vote, but every metric for Black Americans is worse. This is intolerable.
Dont tell me how bad Trump is…You are buying into the liberal media who has branded Trump as a racist. You took the bait.
As far as standing on principle, I have no problem doing it. I supported Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012 and they branded him a racist and the media blackballed him. Same dirty tricks today.

==Experience==
Remember when you voted for Obama, the community organizer? He somehow had enough “experience” even though he never had a shred of real work in the private space.
America is in decline. Trump has his own issues but he is willing to stand up and say enough is enough. I’m tired of the politicians lying and being bought. The GOP is the most effective way of getting out the message but even some in his own party try to ostracize him and are turncoats.
I admire Trump for standing up against the machine. A machine he knows is flawed and corrupt from his own dealings “buying politicians.”
Trump used the political system to his advantage, no doubt about it. But many people are doing the same and they stay hush hush about it. They give money to Political groups, politicians and organizations that assure the system stays the same or is more advantageous to them. Trump is calling the system out.

==The Establishment==
Is there a reason why the media, the democrats, a group of the Republicans and the libertarians are all against Trump?
He upsets the system. He is the outsider here to come change it. The many in power that benefit for the system staying the same are scared. Jeff Bezos is scared. Carlos Slim is scared. Mark Zuckerberg is scared. Billionaires have given more money to Clinton than Trump by a wide margin. Yet the narrative is that Trump is only in it for enriching himself and his other billionaire buddies. Lies.

==The New McCarthyism==
The Clinton machine is trying to posture for war against Russia. Russia’s entire GDP us less than the GDP of New York. The entire Russian military expenditure is less than 3 weeks of US military spending. Yet, Clinton says we need to be scared of Russia. Clinton is setting the world stage for WWIII and its ridiculous. She’s taking advantage of the uninformed. The Clinton machine has said that Russia is trying to mess with our elections. Ridiculous.

PREDICTION: TRUMP is the 2016 President of the US #MAGA #TRUMP

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFjqvxkTfRM

TRUMP wins 2016 President of the United States. Big news in the Republican nominee process as Ted Cruz drops out. Kasich is suspected to drop out as well, as he was a distant third.
Trump is the only candidate that can beat Hillary Clinton.
Am I right? Who will be president in 2016?

How a Japanese Trader Made $40 million in a trade! CIS

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91iEkDFI1oA

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/tpavlik

Bloomberg story
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/article…
“One document showed he had traded $14 billion worth of Japanese equities in 2013 — about half of 1 percent of all the share transactions done by individuals on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that year.”

““Of course I’m happy about today, but you win some and you lose a lot, too,” he said, explaining the Greek financial crisis had cost him about $6 million.”
THE TRADE:
“The latest trade began on Aug. 12, when CIS noticed a shift in equity markets he hadn’t seen for a while. Shares in the major indexes were struggling to recover from sell-offs. He started shorting Nikkei futures: 200 contracts the first day and another 1,300 over the following week and a half.
The stakes were enormous. With 1,500 contracts at a notional value of about $160,000 each, his bet against the Nikkei was about $240 million. For every 100 yen move in the index, he stood to make or lose $1.25 million.
The market was mostly flat over the next few days; CIS bided his time playing video games. On Friday Aug. 21, the Nikkei dipped. Then on Monday, the index plunged the most in two years, and the futures fell more than 1,000 points to 18,410. By the close at 3 p.m. in Tokyo, his profit stood at about $13 million.”
CIS trader twitter handle
https://twitter.com/cissan_9984