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Apr 222013
 

If you are interested in finance and the markets, it’s a matter of time before you come across a specific designation that some market professionals have: CMT.

You will probably notice that people put the designation next to their name Homer Simpson, CMT. To earn the Chartered Market Technician designation you must conquer the markets by attaining 1000% annual returns for 5 years in a row. Just kidding.

The MTA (Market Technicians Association) is in charge of the designation. From the MTA website: (www.mta.org), there are 3 tests to pass to complete the CMT program. The Level 1 exam is tested on a definition level and measures basic, entry level competence.

“CMT Level 1 Exam tests the candidate’s knowledge of six basic areas of technical analysis:

1) Terminology of technical analysis
2) Methods of charting
3) Determination of price trends/basics of pattern recognition
4) Establishing price targets
5) Equity market analysis
6) Applying technical analysis to bonds, currencies, futures and options”

In order to study for the test they recommend some classical texts on technical analysis. I really like this approach. Rather than putting their own spin on things, just show what previous technicians have come up with and let the student figure out what works and how they want to trade the markets. Thankfully none of these texts read like a textbook.

Level 1 Books:

1. Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians
 by Charles Kirkpatrick and Julie Dahlquist

2.  The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure: A Comprehensive Guide to the Theory and Practical Use of the Point and Figure Charting Method
 by Jeremy du Plessis

3. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
9th Edition Edwards and Magee 9th Edition

4.  Technical Analysis Explained : The Successful Investor’s Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points
by Martin Pring, 4th Edition

If you are serious about technical analysis then having the designation can make you stand out or show that you have a set of skills to other professionals. I know some CMT’s that work on their own website or newsletter, some that work for family offices, hedge funds or do consulting work. Pretty much all CMT’s I know are obsessed with the markets and trade their own account.

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 Posted by at 5:57 pm
Feb 092013
 

Dr. Carson outlines some of the biggest problems with America. The first is the overall political correctness which stifles conversation and thought behind our biggest issues.

Two of the biggest issues that America faces today are actually bipartisan issues; education and healthcare. Dr. Carson points out that we already spend twice the amount per capita than other developed nations. The solution is not to throw more money at the situation but to do it smartly. He offers a possible solution in providing a tax free account that Americans get at birth to save for health issues.

On the education front he talks about bringing  about a national attitude where smart students are admired as much as the athletes. Personally, an organization he is involved with rewards high performing students who also are compassionate with scholarships for school.

Carson’s personal story is quite uplifting. He discovered that being successful is determined by the individual and not on luck or where you came from.

“We have only ourselves to blame. We create our own destiny by the way we do things. We have to take advantage of opportunities and be responsible for our choices.”

Of course I would be remiss if I did not address the real reason why this video is going viral.  Everyone who might not agree with Obama’s policies loves to see Obama’s reaction during the speech. The traditional, mainstream media has been very kind to Obama. And although there is a lot of backlash against his policies as President, few have been as brave as Dr. Carson was by refusing to kowtow while speaking in front of Obama.

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 Posted by at 1:13 pm
Feb 082013
 
SPX option calls big trade

I missed a monster trade in SPX calls. It actually has been feeling weird recently in the market with a lot of really predictable buying and selling within this range bound market. Here is the setup:

Market sells of sharply in am. I contemplate selling some of my Smith and Wesson shares to raise cash and take a trade here in SPX calls.

SPX option calls big tradeOverall I feel like the market can sustain one more blow off top to 1520-1530  before we get our correction. But I do think we are starting the correction process. The choppy action and volatile trading make for great trading.

SPX index february 2013

 

I do want to be prepared for every scenario. If we continue up that can make sense to me too. Fresh shorts get hammered and the market wants to levitate toward 1550 on SPX where it is dying to be sold on the triple top from 99′ and 07′.

SPX 20 year triple top coming

Triple Top Coming?

AAPL was up on Einhorn’s desperation heave; forcing AAPL to try and actually receive a return on their cash hoarding. Of course, bulls in AAPL have been citing cash valuation all the way down. If you want cash, don’t buy a security, hold ca$h. And if you want to buy based on cash value but then get angry when they do not use the cash, there is a problem with that thinking.

NFLX was up again. As speculative as it has been trading, I think it goes much higher. Heck AMZN is way up where it is(valuation wise), why not NFLX?

Netflix NFLX is up huge in 2013 

 

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Jan 252013
 
velocity of money long term US

The biggest theme Ray Dalio mentions is people moving out of cash and bonds seeking more return. This means inflation could be coming as people start using their cash and moving it through the system to chase the same amount of goods and services. So instead of central banks being worried about propping up the system, they be more prone to increasing interest rates. Inflation is generally described as increasing the money supply + velocity of money(in extreme cases as soon as you get money you spend it because of the expected inflation). The velocity of money been missing in the inflation equation. They will sell bonds and go further out on the risk curve.
velocity of money long term US

Europe will continue to have troubles and face tough social times. Sell Europe and look for the opportunity to short European exposed American companies doing a great deal of business in Europe.

The simplest recommendation is to buy gold. Clearly central banks will continue to accumulate more gold as the currency wars continue-each country wanting to have the cheapest currency relative to their trading partners.  Central banks will continue to hedge their bets by buying gold in size. Translation: the gold bull market is not dead.

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 Posted by at 2:46 am
Jan 172013
 
Book cover your income tax j.k. lasser

I had the great privilege in receiving my first education about the completely ridiculous US Tax Code via J.K Lasser’s Your Income Tax 2013. The book is like an encyclopedia and tells you everything from writing off medical expenses to loss from theft (If your friend swindles you out of a cool $2 million you can write that off).  Actually if you do your own taxes and have the interest or time then the book is certainly worth it. I actually found myself surprised at just how many different activities were tax deductible.

5 Reasons why you should do your own taxes.

1. If you plan smartly you can save a ton of money.
2. Nobody knows your activities better than you. Who knows if your accountant is working the tax code in the most efficient way?
3. Learning about the tax code is sexy. You’ll be able to impress the ladies at the hotel bar with your knowledge of  Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
4. Invoke Hatred and disgust in the federal government’s waste,  do further research and leave the two party platform. Become a libertarian and in the process raise your IQ score 20 points.
5.  It’s better than ending up like Wesley Snipes: super successful and having your 50th Birthday in a box courtesy of the “land of the free and home of the brave.”

Book cover your income tax j.k. lasser
Income Tax Filing Deadlines
Excerpted from J.K. Lasser’s Your Income Tax 2013: For Preparing Your 2012 Tax Return

January 15, 2013 – Pay the balance of your 2012 estimated tax. If you do not meet this date, you may avoid an estimated tax penalty for the last quarter by filing your 2012 return and paying the balance due by January 31,2013.

Farmers and fishermen: File your single 2012 estimated tax payment by this date. If you do not, you may still avoid an estimated tax penalty by filing a final tax return and paying the full tax by March 1, 2013.

January 31, 2013 – Make sure you have received a Form W-2 from each employer for whom you worked in 2012.

April 15, 2013 – File your 2012 tax return and pay the balance of your tax. If you cannot meet the April 15 deadline, you may obtain an automatic six-month filing extension by filing Form 4868 (on paper or electronically). However, even if you get an extension, interest will still be charged for taxes not paid by April 15, and late payment penalties will be imposed unless at least 90% of your tax liability is paid by this date or you otherwise show reasonable cause. If you cannot pay the full amount of tax you owe when you file your return, you can file Form 9465 to request an installment payment arrangement.

If on this date you are a U.S. citizen or resident living and working outside the U.S. or Puerto Rico, or in military service outside the U.S. or Puerto Rico, you have an automatic two-month filing extension until June 17, 2013.

Pay the first installment of your 2013 estimated tax by this date.

June 17, 2013 – Pay the second installment of your 2013 estimated tax. You may amend your estimate at this time.

If on April 15 you were a U.S. citizen or resident living and working outside the U.S. or Puerto Rico, or in military service outside the U.S. or Puerto Rico, file your 2012 return and pay the balance due. You may obtain an additional four-month filing extension until October 15, 2013, by filing Form 4868.

If you are a nonresident alien who did not have tax withheld from your wages, file Form 1040NR by this date and pay the balance due.

September 16, 2013 – Pay the third installment of your 2013 estimated tax. You may amend your estimate at this time.

October 15, 2013 – File your 2012 return if you received an automatic six-month filing extension using Form 4868. Also file your 2012 return and pay the balance due if on April 15 you were a U.S. citizen or resident living and working outside the U.S. or Puerto Rico, or in military service outside the U.S. or Puerto Rico, and by June 17 you qualified for an additional four-month extension by filing Form 4868.

December 31, 2013 – If self-employed, this is the last day to set up a Keogh plan for 2013.

January 15, 2014 – Pay the balance of your 2013 estimated tax.

April 15, 2014 – File your 2013 return and pay the balance of your tax. Pay the first installment of your 2014 estimated tax by this date.

15th day of the 4th month after the fiscal year ends – File your fiscal year return and pay the balance of the tax due. If you cannot meet the filing deadline, apply for an automatic four-month filing extension on Form 4868.

Excerpted with permission of the publisher, Wiley, from J.K. Lasser’s Your Income Tax 2013: For Preparing Your 2012 Tax Return. Copyright © 2012 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. This book is available at all book sellers.

Author Bio
Barbara Weltman, J.K. Lasser’s spokesperson, is an experienced media professional, ready to lend her expertise to print, online, and broadcast segments and is available for interviews and year-end tax questions. Barbara was recently named among the List of 100 Small Business Influencers for 2012, among many other major honors. She also hosts the radio show “Build Your Business” on www.wsradio.com. She is a key member of the J.K. Lasser Institute team of editors & writers, and has contributed to dozens of best-selling business books.

About J.K. Lasser Institute:
J.K. Lasser Institute has been the premier publisher of consumer tax guides since 1939, when Jacob Kay Lasser first published Your Income Tax. Since then, the guide has been published continuously for over seventy years and read by over 39,000,000 people. The J.K. Lasser Institute also publishes several personal finance books, including Small Business Taxes, Home Owner’s Tax Breaks, 1001 Deductions and Tax Breaks, Year-Round Tax Planning, and more. J.K. Lasser Institute spokespeople are regularly sought after as media tax experts. They regularly appear on such broadcast programs as CNBC, CNN, and Bloomberg TV. They are also often featured in numerous periodicals, including The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Self Magazine, The New York Times, Newsweek and Reader’s Digest.

Scridb filter
Dec 202012
 

I really respect Kyle Bass and his views. In trading and investing it is all about timing. Sure we all think there is a chance that the market could crash but how many people were short the markets in 2008?

Time will tell if Japan can continue to have very low interest rates adding more and more debt. I appreciate Bass laying his thesis out there to receive feedback. I have heard Bass before speak about the seriousness of his job as a fiduciary. He takes the attitude that it is better that he gets made a fool of (there is of course a possibility)

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 Posted by at 11:18 am
Dec 012012
 

Residential

If you believe in the housing recovery there are a several big themes to keep in mind. First, the banks could lower their borrowing standards and get more people involved in housing. That would be very bullish for housing prices. Mortgages were hard to come by unless you were adequately capitalized in 2009-2010. Cash buyers and investors dominated the scene. Perhaps an economic recovery (unemployment rate coming down) could lead to more upside. But clearly more and more Americans are choosing to rent.

Second, there is still tons of inventory of underwater housing especially in states that are judicially protected. The potential for these homes to come on the market and the owners cash out remains to be seen.

farmers crop land

Farmers are doing well

Arizona was not judicially protected so the crash was more severe but the rebound has also been faster to the upside. Bare lots in the town where I grew up could not be found for less than $1 million circa 2005 are now around $600,000 or thereabouts.

The potential upside to interest rates scares some investors. Should interest rates rise rapidly, there is some danger of the real estate market cooling substantially and having to rent out the residence for longer.

Farm Land

However, as Jim Grant’s Interest Rate Observer points out, crop land is at all time highs. Areas such as Iowa are on fire with land that once went for just $11,00 per acre one year ago, now fetching $15,700 per acre. Investors renting out the farmland are seeing around 3% cap rates are near multi-decade lows. More specifically, “Not since the toppy days of the early 1980′s has the land yielded so small of a cash return.” (Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, November 2012)

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